Analysed: TV duels

Image analysis takes a new direction

Analysed: TV duels of the election candidates for German Chancellor

German general election 2002 - emotions play a more and more important role, even in politics. The tendency to personalise election campaigns bears this development out: "the Stoibers" and slogans such as "keep going, Gerd", "Second vote is the Joschka vote". Politicians are turning into brands. The inclusion of the electorate's emotional assessments in the strategic orientation of political action will decide election outcomes.
 
THE CHALLENGE

For the first time ever, two TV debates between chancellor candidates are broadcast on German television.

It weren't just opinion researchers and election campaign managers who were wondering what influence these TV duels would have on election results. The observations couldn't have differed more; they ranged from "meaningless" to "election-deciding".  But how certain can traditional opinion-poll prognoses be if the interplay of candidate image and short-term events, such as floods or war, have decisive influence on voting behaviour?

THE SOLUTION
 
The TV debates between the candidates triggered off an investigation, using the interview and analysis tool nextexpertizer, into the effects of the media events on the images of the two opponents, Gerhard Schröder and Edmund Stoiber. The innovative interview technique is particularly suited to gathering and comparing unconscious, emotional assessments.
 
Students assess politicians
During the heated election campaign, nextpractice carried out a qualitative study. The method-oriented consultant firm decided for a three-stage longitudinal survey conducted with a sensitive group of test persons which remained constant throughout the study.
 
660 interviews
220 students from courses in politics, themselves first-time voters, were interviewed at three different intervals using nextexpertizer prior to, and after the, first TV debate and again after the second. The students from grammar schools were first-time voters from Saxony, Lower Saxony and Bremen. The survey covered the influence of the debates on the image-change of the two top candidates plus four additional politicians and the five political parties represented in the Bundestag. Nine celebrities were also included as comparisons for image development.

THE RESULTS
 
Political brand positioning becomes valuable information
The surprise: Schröder's image was boosted despite appearances in both TV duels that were rated as unconvincing in regard to content. Stoiber's attempt to enhance his image to suit the media was interpreted by the students as lacking credibility. Edmund Stoiber, the challenger from the CDU/CSU, scored short-term points with his vigorous television appearance. However, on the whole, his image dropped constantly over the period of the three surveys.
There was more to come: the CDU/CSU's image dropped in unison with Stoiber's. In contrast, the SPD's image, which, compared to Schröder's, was worse, gained with that of the chancellor, despite of - or possibly because of - his reserved appearance during the debates.
 
Over the course of the debates, the positive effect of Gerhard Schröder's image on a campaign influenced by floods and the threat of war became clear and was later confirmed by the election results.

Media response
In the printed media alone, the study's publication brought about 145 reports with a circulation of over 6.2 million, plus countless radio and television reports. At the invitation of media mind AG Potsdam, Prof. Kruse presented the results to top-class members from the fields of politics, marketing and election campaigning on the occasion of the "Politikmarken-Markenpolitik" conference in February 2003 .
Constant monitoring of image profiles will form a future part of political campaigning and electoral research.